Ukwehla kwamandla emali – Ukukhiya isicabha esizinzile ngemuva kokuthi ihhashi seliboshiwe?

NJENGOBA ukhetho lwango-2023 olungase lube nokuntengantenga lusondela, kunesizathu sokuthi izikhulu kanye nezikhulu ezibusayo bakhathazeke ngemali engazinzile kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali. Uhulumeni kanye nebhange elikhulu bafuna ukulawula laba ababili ngokuzimisela okuqinile, kodwa bangase bazame ukukhiya umnyango ozinzile ngemva kokuba ihhashi selibhoyidiwe.

Ukwehla kwamandla emali, okufinyelele ku-362.3% ngoJanuwari, kuzuze amaphuzu angu-1.3 ngesilinganiso sika-August kuya ku-51.5% ngoSepthemba, ngokwezibalo zakamuva zikahulumeni. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kwaminyaka yonke kusukela ngezibalo zikaJanuwari, bekulokhu kwehle kakhulu, kodwa ijika lehla ngoJulayi nango-Agasti, okwenza amabhuleki ehla.

Ezinyangeni ezimbili ezedlule, usibalukhulu webhanga elikhulu lelizwe iReserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) uJohn Magudya umemezele ngokunqoba ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kwezomnotho sekwehlile, okudale lokho akubiza ngokuthi “isimo esivumayo semali kanye lemali” esiqakathekileyo ukuze “umnotho ukhule ngamandla. isikhathi esimaphakathi”.

Kodwa manje sekunokwethuka okusobala: Ukushesha kwamanani ezimpahla, okubangelwe ukwehla kwenani lemakethe emnyama yemali yasekhaya, kwaphoqa umphathi webhange elikhulu ukuthi athathe isinyathelo eside emakethe. Idlanzana labasolwa ngokudayisa ngemali yemakethe emnyama baboshwa, ama-akhawunti abo asebhange kwathiwa avalwe, kanye nezinombolo zabo zamaselula, ezisetshenziswa njengezikhwama zemali eziphathwayo ezimakethe ezimnyama. Kuze kube muva nje, izingcingo eziphindaphindiwe zokukhulula uhlelo lwendali ye-forex oluphethwe lubonakale luwela ezindlebeni ezingezwa.

Kwalandela ukuqiniswa kwabaphathi bamabhizinisi. USimba Makoni, owake waba ngumphathintambo wezemali, ngomunye wabaqondisi abamiswe phambi komthethwandaba ngoba inkampani engumgcinisihlalo webhodi layo kuthiwa ibisebenzisa izilinganiso zemakethe ukuze ithengise impahla yayo.

Nakuba ukucindezelwa kwabathengisi bemakethe kuvame ukubonakala kwemizamo yokunciphisa imakethe emnyama, iye yanda ngokuphindisela. UMangudya uvame ukukhuthaza inqubomgomo yezimali njengethuluzi elisebenzayo lokuletha uzinzo ezimakethe.

Uhlelo lwendali yemali yangaphandle, uthe, “lusize ekutholweni kwezinga lokushintshisana elisekelwe emakethe elifanele nelizinzile lezwe”. Uhlelo lwendali yezohwebo zangaphandle lwethulwe ngoJuni 2020, lunciphisa, uMangudya uthe, “ukuhlanekezelwa kwentengo ngokunciphisa amanani aqagelwayo kanye nokukhonjiswa kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwemakethe kwamanani ngamabhizinisi”.

“Ngakho-ke, i-parallel exchange rate premium yehlile yaba ibhande elibekezelelekayo elifinyelela ku-20%, elihambisana nolwazi lwakwamanye amazwe,” esho ngoFebhuwari.

Amankampani amanengi akhala ngokuthi sekumele alinde okwenyanga ukuze athole isabelo sawo semali yakwamanye amazwe endalini yemali. Ngenxa yalokho, inqwaba yabo iphendukele emakethe ehambisanayo, okuphoqe ukuthi inani lemakethe elimnyama leyunithi yendawo libe ngaphansi kwengcindezi.

Izibalo zeReserve Bank zikhomba ukuthi cishe u-28% wezimpahla ezithengwa kuleli zixhaswa yimakethe yendali. Ibhalansi yokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe ixhaswa ngezimali kweminye imithombo, ikakhulukazi imakethe efanayo. Lokhu kusho ukuthi iprimiyamu yezinga lokushintshaniswa kwemakethe efanayo inwetshiwe, isuka eqenjini elinethezeka yaya ngaphezu kuka-84% ngenyanga edlule.

Ngisho noma izinga lemakethe elihambisanayo liye lahamba kakhulu ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule, izinga lokushintshanisa ngemali elisemthethweni, elinqunywa uhlelo lwendali lwamasonto onke, lisahleli lizibophezele, liphele ngoSepthemba ngesilinganiso esilinganiselwe esingu-87.66 kuya kudola laseMelika. Ngokuqhathanisa, izinga lemakethe elihambisanayo lase livele lithambekele ku-200 kuya ku-greenback.

“Ngakho-ke ukuduka kwentengo yemali yikho okudale ingcindezi elizweni okwamanje,” kutsho uCornelius Dube, umphathintambo wezomnotho weConfederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI). Izindleko ezitholwa ngamabhizinisi ekutholeni imali yakwamanye amazwe kweminye imithombo ziqhutshwa kakhulu izinga lokushintshisana elihambisanayo,” esho.

Ethula inkulumo yakhe kumalunga eCZI, uDube uthe izinga lemakethe elihambisanayo “belokhu lilokhu lintengantenga ngenxa yokufunwa yizinkampani zomnotho ukuze kugcinwe ukubaluleka”.

Ibhange elikhulu liqinise ukuqagela kwalo kokwehla kwamandla emali okuqhubeka njalo “ezinyathelweni zalo eziqinile zenqubomgomo yezimali”, okusekelwe esibambisweni salo sokukhula kwemali egodliwe kanye nokwabiwa kwemali yangaphandle okusekelwe ohlelweni lwendali elathi seliqediwe.

Igcizelela ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kwaminyaka yonke kuzokwehla kufinyelele emazingeni afiselekayo acishe abe ngu-30% ekupheleni konyaka.

Ngokusobala, amarisidi emali yangaphandle abelokhu enyuka, futhi i-US$1 bhiliyoni evela ku-International Monetary Fund bekungaqinisa lokhu ukwenza buthaka imakethe efanayo. Amarisidi emali yakwamanye amazwe phakathi kukaMasingana noSepthemba kulo nyaka afinyelele ku-US$6.09 billion, uma kuqhathaniswa ne-US$4.43 billion esikhathini esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, ngokwezibalo zakamuva ze-RBZ. Lokhu kusho ukukhula kwama-37.8%.

Phakathi nalesi sikhathi esiyizinyanga eziyisishagalolunye, izinkokhelo zokushintshaniswa kwemali yakwamanye amazwe ngohlelo lwendali zaba yi-US$1 501 541 525. Amankampani amaningi axhasa ngezimali izimpahla zawo ezivela kwamanye amazwe ngama-akhawunti emali yakwamanye amazwe, amanye awo ayekhiphe ukheshi emakethe ngokuthengisa ukheshi emphakathini. Lokhu, ezimweni eziningi, bekunentengo kusetshenziswa amanani emakethe ahambisanayo.

UDube uthe ukwehla kwamandla emali sekudale ukuguguleka kwemali engenayo.

“Abasebenzi abathole amaholo angaphezulu kuka-50% ezinyangeni ezingu-12 ezedlule banxeshezelwa ngokwanele ngenxa yemiphumela yokwehla kwamandla emali,” esho, exwayisa ngokuthi iyanda ingozi yokwehla kwamandla emali okubangelwa ukwehla ukuzethemba njengoba abantu bebona impi. ukwehla kwamandla emali njengokulahlekile.

Umphumela walokhu kuguguleka kwemali engenayo ube wukubhebhethekisa ububha ezweni. Lokhu, ngokungenakugwenywa, kubukela phansi amathuba okhetho eqembu elibusayo, eselivele lihlukunyezwa ngenxa yokuqhekeka kwangaphakathi, kuyilapho likhulisa igama lamaqembu aphikisayo.

Emhlanganweni nokaputeni bezimboni nezohwebo ekuqaleni kwale nyanga “wokuthola izixazululo zokuntengantenga kwezinga lokushintshisana kwezimakethe ezihambisanayo” okunomthelela omubi ekukhuleni komnotho kanye nokwenyuka kwentengo yakuleli, uMangudya uthe ubophezele iBhange Lombuso ukuthi libhekane nokusalela emuva kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe. ukwabiwa kwemali ohlelweni lwendali nokuqinisekisa ukuthi lokho kusilela emuva akuphindeki.

Kodwa kwakungekho ukuzibophezela ekuqedeni imakethe efanayo. Esikhundleni salokho, uMangudya weluleke abathengisi ukuthi belule izaphulelo kumakhasimende edola laseMelika ngesikhathi esijwayelekile “inqobo nje uma zinengqondo futhi zihambisana nokwenza kahle”. Izaphulelo ziyi-ephemism yamazinga emakethe afanayo.

Abathengisi abasebenzisa ukushintshana okusemthethweni, njengamaketanga amakhulu okuthengisa, bangasebenzisa “i-premium yokubekezelela efika ku-10%” ohlelweni lwabo lwentengo. Kodwa ekubopheni iziphathamandla zamabhizimusi kanye labadayisi bemali, iRBZ ibifuna ukuzwisa umphakathi ukuthi isebenzelana lenkohlakalo engelalwazi.