‘Renewable energy capacity to jump 60%’

By Eben Mabunda

The growth of renewable energy capacity is forecast to accelerate in the next five years, accounting for about 95% of the increase in global power capacity through 2026, the most recent stats released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict.

A global perspective

Named Renewables 2021, the report released this December by the IEA is an analysis of the global renewable energy fraternity, based on current policies and market developments. It forecasts the deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2026 while also exploring key challenges to the industry and identifying barriers to faster growth.

The scintillating element of this report is the comparison between the current global energy output and the potential renewable energy predictions: “Globally, renewable electricity capacity is forecast to increase by over 60% between 2020 and 2026, reaching more than 4 800GW. This is equivalent to the current global power capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear combined.”

Bolstering the bullish forecasts is stronger policy support and ambitious climate targets announced at the COP26 global climate change summit, whose weight is expected to dwarf the current record commodity prices that have increased the costs of building new wind and solar PV installations.

Breakdown by category

“Under current policies, renewable heat consumption, excluding traditional uses of biomass, is expected to increase by one-quarter during the 2021-26 period. Its share of global heat consumption is only forecast to rise from 11% in 2020 to 13% in 2026. Fossil fuels are set to continue meeting much of the growing global demand for heat, leading to a 5% increase in heat-related carbon dioxide emissions over our forecast period,” reads the report.

The expansion of hydropower, bioenergy, geothermal and concentrated solar power is expected to account for only 11% of renewable capacity expansion worldwide, over the forecast period. Relatively higher costs, lack of policy support and limited remuneration of flexible and dispatchable renewables discourage their expansion. Onshore wind additions through 2026 are projected to be almost 25% higher on average than in the 2015-2020 period.

Leading renewing countries

By and large, China is a force to reckon with over the next five years, accounting for about 43% of global renewable capacity growth. It is trailed by Europe, the US and India — these four markets alone account for 80% of renewable capacity expansion worldwide. Reasonably so, in recent decades China’s annual emissions have ballooned, placing it first among polluters, with the US second, the EU and India coming next. In 2015, when countries signed the landmark Paris Agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the African nation’s emissions stood at 0,12 tonnes/person, compared to 16 tonnes/person for the US.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Zeroing in on sub Saharana Africa (SSA), the IEA gave a bullish outlook: “Renewable capacity is expected to increase by 76%, or almost 33GW in SSA from 2021 to 2026 in the main case, twice the amount of capacity additions in the preceding five-year period. Nearly half of the new additions are from large-scale reservoir hydropower projects, while solar PV and onshore wind represent the majority of the remaining growth over the forecast period.”
The faster commissioning of large hydropower plants to meet financing and construction deadlines, new auctions and project announcements propped up IEC’s optimistic forecast for SSA.

According to the report, SSA has tremendous solar PV and wind potential, in addition to vast hydropower resources.

Final word

To get renewables on track with net zero by 2050, governments not only need to address current policy and implementation challenges but also increase ambition for all renewable energy uses.